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Taep'o-dong 1 (TD-1) Shahab-4 Estimated Missile Ranges
Shahab-4 The Islamic republic has issued a range of diverse statements regarding its space program. The Iranian defence minister announced in February 1999 that Iran was in the process of constructing the non-military Shahab-4 missile for the purpose of launching a satellite into space.
Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Vice-Admiral Ali Shamkhani told state television on 23 August 2000 that "we are also investing in production of those military equipment that, with minimum cost, can have maximum effects on our deterrence capabilities. In fact we are investing in [our access] to space technology or its prerequisite field like missile technology by improving the range, accuracy, and destruction power of missiles. This is one of our main aims." As late as 2001, Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said the Shehab-4 intermediate-range missile was actually a satellite launcher.
In late 2003, however, the Defense Ministry denied that it was conducting a Shihab-4 program, a missile that aimed to reach a range of at least 2,000 kilometers. Iran has no intention of manufacturing a missile more powerful than the Shahab-3 Iran's Defence Ministry said in a statement carried 07 November 2003 by the student news agency ISNA. "As we have said on several occasions and contrary to certain statements, Iran has no programme to build a Shahab-4 missile," the statement was quoted as saying. It was not clear what provoked the defence ministry to issue such a statement.
According to some analysts, the Iranian Shahab-4 missile is believed to be a derivative of the 1,500-kilometer range North Korean Nodong-2. Other reports claim that the missile is based on the Soviet SS-4 missile, and is entirely a product of Russian missile technology. The preponderance of evidence suggests that the Shahab 4 is the North Korean three-stage Taepodong-1, which was initially flown by the DPRK as a space launch vehicle.
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London) reported on 14 June 2004 that a military source in the Iranian Ministry of Defense, "in a meeting last week with Revolutionary Guards commanders, Khamenei said that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear installations and the Iranian military soon, and therefore defense and military preparedness should be boosted as soon as possible. Khamenei stressed that the increase in petroleum prices allowed Iran to allocate a larger budget to its military projects. [Iran's] Ministry of Defense received $1 billion to resume its Shihab 4 and Shihab 5 project.... [President] Khatami halted the project of the Shihab 4, whose range is 2,800 [which covers Western Europe], and the Shihab 5, whose range is 4,900-5,300 km [and which can reach the U.S.], because he thought it was a project incompatible with Iran's strategic interests and defense needs." [MEMRI]
The Shahab-4 is projected to include improved guidance components, with a range of 2,000 kilometer with a warhead weighing up to 1,000 kilograms. The Shahab-4 would be capable of hitting targets as far away as Germany and western China. Israeli reports have suggested that the Iranian Zelzal project provides for the development of a 1,000-1,500km range missile -- the upper end of this range spectrum would require the two-stage Nodong-2 configuration. The precise configuration of the Shahab-4, which has not been flight tested, remains somewhat conjectural. The missile could use two booster stages equipped with the Nodong engines, or a single Nodong engine on top of a more powerful Russian-design motor.
Israeli sources have claimed that that Russia has been providing Iran technology from the SS-4, which with a range of 2,000km is sufficient to reach Israel. Israeli officials who briefed US intelligence agencies in February 1997 reportedly produced a copy of a $7 million contract between NPO Trud and the Iranian program covering the transfer of equipment related to the SS-4 medium-range missile. Iran's Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group (SHIG), the government defense industrial agency in charge of developing and producing ballistic missiles, has reportedly concluded several contracts worth more than $100,000 with the Russian Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute related to missile programs. The contracts are said to include construction of a wind tunnel for missile design, manufacture of model missiles and creation of related software.
Among the Russian firms said to be helping Iran are Rosvoorouzhenie, the Russian arms-export agency; the Bauman Institute; NPO Trud, a rocket-motor manufacturer; and Polyus ["North Star"} Russia's leading laser developer. Russian assistance reportedly includes wind-tunnel testing of missile nose cones, the design of guidance and propulsion systems, and development of a solid-fuel project. Israeli sources maintain that the Russian Space Agency [and its director, Yuri Koptev] is involved directly in some of the technology transfers. A Chinese company, Great Wall Industries, is reportedly supplying missile-testing telemetry technology to Iran.
According to U.S. officials, Russian enterprises have provided high-grade steel, wind tunnel test facilities for flight performance, and special alloys for the missile casing and for foil shielding around guidance systems. The firms involved, according to the officials, included the Baltic State Technical University, NPO Energy Mash and the Bauman Institute in St. Petersburg. The US government has concluded that the Russian government is at best turning a blind eye to these transactions.
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